This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Surprising Title Charge

Just eight weeks prior that the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him for not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team went six without a win, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the source of Villa's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

The Manager's Celebration of Triumph

On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. When the England international drilled in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss discarded his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, find themselves only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?

That’s a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.

According to Opta, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more when facing United.

The initial strike came from a superb shot, bent just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition had more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction might be the biggest rival the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.

  • The centre-forward could start scoring again.
  • Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed during his peak.
  • Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial England player.

This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.

Austin Wiggins
Austin Wiggins

A professional gambler and mathematician specializing in casino game theory and statistical analysis.